Since mid-September, commercial international flights to Kenya, Rwanda, Ghana and Nigeria have resumed, but flights to South Africa have not. In June 2020, virtually all of Africa’s 54 countries had suspended international flights, 38 countries had announced the closure of land borders, and 17 countries had closed their maritime borders. While restrictions on business activities were lifted gradually, mostly between May and July, night-time curfews are still in place in countries such as South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, and Uganda.ĭiscussions about reopening schools are still underway in Kenya, but Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire are gradually sending students back to school.
They were upheld longer than in Europe, as Figure 1 illustrates. On average, lockdowns in Africa were strict compared to other world regions. Much younger, but also because of a lower incidence of risk factors, such as cardiovascular diseases, obesity, and diabetes. On the other hand, mortality may really be lower – not only because Africa’s population is On the one hand, it is conceivable that official figures obscure the severity and extent of the pandemic, as deaths may be underreported and testing strategies may differ systematically from those in other regions. In Africa need to be interpreted with great care. Yet the paucity of data means that the figures showing a somewhat milder trajectory for Covid-19 2020), which means low case numbers cannot be attributed to low testing rates alone.Īt this stage, it seems likely that early fears that Covid-19 would claim a dramatic number of lives in Africa and overwhelm its weak health systems were overblown (Wills 2020). This is despite the share of positive tests being comparable to other world regions (Mbow et al. Second, it seems that outside of South Africa, mortality is lower in Africa thanĮlsewhere. Daily infections peaked in July in most countries, and the number of confirmed cases in Africa surpassed the one-million mark in August 2020, with roughly half of those cases concentrated in South Africa. Mid-September, less than 5 per cent of global confirmed Covid-19 cases were in Africa, while approximately 17 per cent of the world population lives on the continent. First, Africa has relatively low absolute infection rates: in The spread of the pandemic and its health impacts have – so it seems – been different in Africa than in other world regions. Low Infections, Lower Mortality, and Strict Lockdowns: Covid-19 in Africa In the medium term, African governments need to increase their economies’ and citizens’ resilience to (economic) shocks. The “new normal” should put more weight on the economic costs of pandemic-related restrictions. This requires a quick response that differentiates across countries, industries, and affected workers. FDI is likely to drop substantially in 2020, including in sectors considered key for an acceleration of Africa’s economic development.Įconomic support by African governments has been far more moderate than elsewhere, although the international community has provided additional means to African economies.Ī quick recovery could minimise setbacks to economic progress and poverty reduction in Africa. Trade has declined dramatically, but there are important differences between export products. Informal workers across the continent suffered drastic short-term income losses during the lockdowns, as very few were shielded by social protection or other policies. The sharp decline in South Africa coincides with initial signs of recovery in both West and East Africa. The impacts have been diverse and differ between countries, the informal and formal sectors, industries, and traded products. Most African governments responded to the pandemic with strict lockdowns, resulting in severe economic consequences. At the same time, some African economies are reporting initial signs of economic recovery. A recent World Bank report suggests that an additional 26 to 40 million sub-Saharan Africans could fall into poverty due to the pandemic.
Because of the Covid-19 lockdowns, South Africa’s gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 51 per cent from the first to the second quarter of 2020.
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